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European Economic Review, ISSN 0014-2921, 11/2015, Volume 80, p. 16
  This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation... 
Studies | Economic models | Macroeconomics | Multivariate analysis | Economic forecasts | Signal to noise ratio
Journal Article
European economic review, ISSN 0014-2921, 01/2015, Volume 80, pp. 16 - 16
This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation... 
Journal Article
European Economic Review, ISSN 0014-2921, 11/2015, Volume 80, pp. 16 - 35
This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation... 
Disagreement | Survey data | Forecast | Imperfect information | Macroeconomic expectation | LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL | INFLATION | UNCERTAINTY | ECONOMICS | STICKY PRICES | EXPECTATIONS | PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS | INFORMATION RIGIDITIES
Journal Article
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, ISSN 0347-0520, 05/2019
Journal Article
The Review of Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, 11/2012, Volume 94, Issue 4, pp. 1081 - 1096
Journal Article
Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, 09/2013, Volume 120, Issue 3, p. 521
  Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of... 
Studies | Gross Domestic Product--GDP | Economic models | Business cycles | Economic forecasts | Agency theory | International
Journal Article
Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, 09/2013, Volume 120, Issue 3, pp. 521 - 524
Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of... 
Forecast revision | Sticky information | Panel data | Expectation | GDP forecast | PRICES | BEHAVIOR | RIGIDITIES | ECONOMICS | Gross domestic product | Analysis
Journal Article
Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, 08/2015, Volume 133, p. 81
  We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a... 
Studies | Economic models | Recessions | Regression analysis | Economic forecasts | Bayesian analysis
Journal Article
Economics letters, ISSN 0165-1765, 08/2015, Volume 133, pp. 81 - 84
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a... 
Journal Article
Wirtschaftsdienst, ISSN 0043-6275, 07/2017, Volume 97, Issue 7, p. 527
To access, purchase, authenticate, or subscribe to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10273-017-2172-8 
Business cycles
Journal Article
Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, 8/2017, Volume 53, Issue 1, pp. 63 - 77
Journal Article
International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, 10/2017, Volume 33, Issue 4, pp. 760 - 769
We document the fact that the growth forecasts made by professional forecasters in advanced economies exhibit systematic errors, and analyze how these errors... 
Forecast bias | Survey data | Forecasting | Growth expectation | Macroeconomic expectations | MANAGEMENT | BIAS | UNBIASEDNESS | STATE | ASYMMETRIC LOSS | RECESSIONS | PLUCKING MODEL | FLUCTUATIONS | ECONOMICS | MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS | PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS | INFORMATION RIGIDITIES | Business cycles | Gross domestic product | Analysis | Global economy
Journal Article
Wirtschaftsdienst, ISSN 0043-6275, 7/2017, Volume 97, Issue 7, pp. 527 - 528
Prognosen sind eine zentrale Richtschnur für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Ein wichtiges Merkmal für die Güte von Prognosen ist dabei neben ihrer Genauigkeit, ob sie... 
Economics | Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics | Social Policy | European Integration | Labor Economics | Political Economy/Economic Policy | Business cycles | Economic forecasts | Economic policy
Journal Article
International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, 04/2011, Volume 27, Issue 2, pp. 452 - 465
In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of... 
Macroeconomic forecasting | Survey data | Rationality | Fixed-event forecasts | Evaluating forecasts | 3-DIMENSIONAL PANEL | MANAGEMENT | CONSERVATISM | ECONOMICS | DISAGREEMENT | Evaluating forecasts Macroeconomic forecasting Rationality Survey data Fixed-event forecasts
Journal Article
Journal of economic dynamics and control, ISSN 0165-1889, 09/2016, Volume 70, pp. 86 - 86
We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic... 
Studies
Journal Article
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, ISSN 0165-1889, 09/2016, Volume 70, p. 86
  We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic... 
Studies | Economic models | Volatility | Global economy | Stochastic models | Bayesian analysis | Forecasting techniques
Journal Article
Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, 09/2016, Volume 40, pp. 37 - 49
Journal Article
International Journal of Forecasting, ISSN 0169-2070, 01/2015, Volume 31, Issue 1, pp. 144 - 154
We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989–2010. We show... 
Information rigidity | Forecast behavior | Aggregation bias | Rational inattention | Growth forecasts | MANAGEMENT | DISAGREEMENT | CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE | MODELS | GROWTH | ECONOMICS | MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS | EFFICIENCY
Journal Article
Economics Letters, ISSN 0165-1765, 08/2015, Volume 133, pp. 81 - 84
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a... 
GVAR | Recession forecast | QPS | Probability forecast | TURNING-POINTS | ECONOMICS
Journal Article
The Review of Economics and Statistics, ISSN 0034-6535, 11/2012, Volume 94, Issue 4, p. 1081
  We investigate determinants of disagreement--cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts--about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic... 
Studies | Economic indicators | Economic forecasts | International
Journal Article
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