Cognitive Psychology, ISSN 0010-0285, 09/2016, Volume 89, pp. 106 - 133

A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various â€˜heuristicsâ€™ or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules...

Probability | Biases | Conditional probability | Rationality | Heuristics | COGNITIVE BIASES | INFORMATION | MODEL | FUTURE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | CONJUNCTION FALLACY | PSYCHOLOGY | DECISION-MAKING | MEMORY | FREQUENCY | Models, Psychological | Probability Theory | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Judgment | Geometric probabilities | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Probability judgments | Noise | Bias | Psychology | Problem solving | Probability distribution | Cognitive psychology | Index Medicus

Probability | Biases | Conditional probability | Rationality | Heuristics | COGNITIVE BIASES | INFORMATION | MODEL | FUTURE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | CONJUNCTION FALLACY | PSYCHOLOGY | DECISION-MAKING | MEMORY | FREQUENCY | Models, Psychological | Probability Theory | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Judgment | Geometric probabilities | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Probability judgments | Noise | Bias | Psychology | Problem solving | Probability distribution | Cognitive psychology | Index Medicus

Journal Article

1972, ISBN 0333127560, x, 144

Book

2010, ISBN 9780199233298, viii, 410

The conditional, ifâ€¦then, is probably the most important term in natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental representation. It occurs...

Conditionals | Grammar, Comparative and general | Thinking | Linguistics | Thought and thinking | Cognition | Logic | cognitive psychology | Human reasoning | Behaviour | Mental representation | Conditional reasoning | Human languages | Mental logics | Probabilistic reasoning | Psychology of reasoning | Logical reasoning

Conditionals | Grammar, Comparative and general | Thinking | Linguistics | Thought and thinking | Cognition | Logic | cognitive psychology | Human reasoning | Behaviour | Mental representation | Conditional reasoning | Human languages | Mental logics | Probabilistic reasoning | Psychology of reasoning | Logical reasoning

Book

Trends in Cognitive Sciences, ISSN 1364-6613, 2015, Volume 19, Issue 4, pp. 201 - 214

Highlights â€¢ We describe a way to integrate probability with deductive reasoning. â€¢ Theories based on logic do not withdraw conclusions that conflict with the...

Neurology | Psychiatry | DEDUCTIVE INFERENCE | DUAL PROCESSES | COGNITION | FINETTI TABLES | NEUROSCIENCES | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | PSYCHOLOGY | MENTAL MODEL-THEORY | WORKING-MEMORY CAPACITY | BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES | ILLUSORY INFERENCES | CONDITIONALS | PARADIGM | Models, Psychological | Probability | Logic | Brain - physiology | Humans | Thinking - physiology | Reasoning | Analysis

Neurology | Psychiatry | DEDUCTIVE INFERENCE | DUAL PROCESSES | COGNITION | FINETTI TABLES | NEUROSCIENCES | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | PSYCHOLOGY | MENTAL MODEL-THEORY | WORKING-MEMORY CAPACITY | BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES | ILLUSORY INFERENCES | CONDITIONALS | PARADIGM | Models, Psychological | Probability | Logic | Brain - physiology | Humans | Thinking - physiology | Reasoning | Analysis

Journal Article

1972, The John Dewey essays in philosophy, ISBN 0231036507, Volume no. 2, x, 144

Book

2019, ISBN 9783038977148

The last few years have been characterized by a tremendous development of quantum information and probability and their applications, including quantum...

irreducible randomness | Schmidt process | quantum-like models for social stochasticity | partially defined algebras | indeterminism | protocol | three-qubit random states | Kochen | complementarity | entanglement classes | maximization of quantum conditional min-entropy | random numbers | quantum computation | MMP hypergraphs | quantum information theory | quasigroups | potentiality | random number generators | social energy | social thermodynamics | quantum dynamics | probability | entanglement | quantum foundations | quantum technology | vacuum state | quantum contextuality | orthogonality | quantum information | correlations | entanglement polytope | causation | quantum-like models | operational approach | reality | Einstein statistics | Borel normality | Bell inequalities | Copenhagen interpretation | social laser | quantum entanglement | algebra | realism | epistemic operations | quantum random number | information interpretation of quantum theory | viable cultures | master equation for socio-information excitations | entropy | quantum logics | Gram | qubits | holistic semantics | Bayesian inference | uncertainty relations | Bose | Bayesâ€™ formula | model selection | quantum logic | groups | randomness | Greechie diagrams | causality | indefiniteness | probability representation | algorithmic complexity | resonator of social laser | bandwagon effect | contextuality | quantum probability | geometry | social atom | bit commitment | anisotropic invariants | quantum information field | Specker sets

irreducible randomness | Schmidt process | quantum-like models for social stochasticity | partially defined algebras | indeterminism | protocol | three-qubit random states | Kochen | complementarity | entanglement classes | maximization of quantum conditional min-entropy | random numbers | quantum computation | MMP hypergraphs | quantum information theory | quasigroups | potentiality | random number generators | social energy | social thermodynamics | quantum dynamics | probability | entanglement | quantum foundations | quantum technology | vacuum state | quantum contextuality | orthogonality | quantum information | correlations | entanglement polytope | causation | quantum-like models | operational approach | reality | Einstein statistics | Borel normality | Bell inequalities | Copenhagen interpretation | social laser | quantum entanglement | algebra | realism | epistemic operations | quantum random number | information interpretation of quantum theory | viable cultures | master equation for socio-information excitations | entropy | quantum logics | Gram | qubits | holistic semantics | Bayesian inference | uncertainty relations | Bose | Bayesâ€™ formula | model selection | quantum logic | groups | randomness | Greechie diagrams | causality | indefiniteness | probability representation | algorithmic complexity | resonator of social laser | bandwagon effect | contextuality | quantum probability | geometry | social atom | bit commitment | anisotropic invariants | quantum information field | Specker sets

eBook

Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, ISSN 0888-3270, 05/2019, Volume 123, pp. 606 - 625

The failure probability function (FPF) is defined as a function of failure probability varying with the design parameters of random inputs, and it is usually...

Failure probability function | Small interval | Adaptive Kriging | Bayes formula | Reliability-based design optimization | DESIGN | RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMIZATION | SENSITIVITY | COMPUTATION | MODEL | ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL | ENTROPY | Monte Carlo method | Economic models | Accuracy | Parameter estimation | Design parameters | Computer simulation | Conditional probability | Bayesian analysis | Kriging | Monte Carlo simulation | Probability density functions | Failure | Design optimization

Failure probability function | Small interval | Adaptive Kriging | Bayes formula | Reliability-based design optimization | DESIGN | RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMIZATION | SENSITIVITY | COMPUTATION | MODEL | ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL | ENTROPY | Monte Carlo method | Economic models | Accuracy | Parameter estimation | Design parameters | Computer simulation | Conditional probability | Bayesian analysis | Kriging | Monte Carlo simulation | Probability density functions | Failure | Design optimization

Journal Article

1975, Synthese library, ISBN 9789027706317, Volume 86, xiii, 155

Book

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology), ISSN 1369-7412, 1/2010, Volume 72, Issue 1, pp. 71 - 91

Linear pooling is by far the most popular method for combining probability forecasts. However, any non-trivial weighted average of two or more distinct,...

Weather | Maximum likelihood estimation | Histograms | Precipitation | Conditional probabilities | Probability forecasts | Calibration | Analytical forecasting | Probabilities | Forecasting models | Coherent combination formula | Linear opinion pool | Model averaging | Forecast aggregation | Reliability | Sharpness | Probability forecasting | Resolution | OPINION POOL | WEATHER | ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS | CONSENSUS | SURFACE WINDS | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | MULTIVARIATE QUANTITIES | MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS | JUDGMENTS | VERIFICATION | Rain and rainfall | Analysis | Probability forecasts (Meteorology) | Studies | Probability | Statistical methods | Forecasting techniques

Weather | Maximum likelihood estimation | Histograms | Precipitation | Conditional probabilities | Probability forecasts | Calibration | Analytical forecasting | Probabilities | Forecasting models | Coherent combination formula | Linear opinion pool | Model averaging | Forecast aggregation | Reliability | Sharpness | Probability forecasting | Resolution | OPINION POOL | WEATHER | ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS | CONSENSUS | SURFACE WINDS | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | MULTIVARIATE QUANTITIES | MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS | JUDGMENTS | VERIFICATION | Rain and rainfall | Analysis | Probability forecasts (Meteorology) | Studies | Probability | Statistical methods | Forecasting techniques

Journal Article

1994, Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory, ISBN 0521453593, vii, 207

Book

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, ISSN 0278-7393, 3/2003, Volume 29, Issue 2, pp. 321 - 335

The authors report 3 experiments in which participants were invited to judge the probability of statements of the form if p then q given frequency information...

MENTAL MODELS | PREMISES | DEDUCTION | INFERENCE | IF | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | PSYCHOLOGY | language | cognition | psycholinguistics | conditional reasoning | probability | Reading | Probability Learning | Semantics | Humans | Problem Solving | Pattern Recognition, Visual | Logic | Color Perception | Set (Psychology) | Discrimination Learning | Psychological aspects | Research | Judgment | Conditionals (Logic)

MENTAL MODELS | PREMISES | DEDUCTION | INFERENCE | IF | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | PSYCHOLOGY | language | cognition | psycholinguistics | conditional reasoning | probability | Reading | Probability Learning | Semantics | Humans | Problem Solving | Pattern Recognition, Visual | Logic | Color Perception | Set (Psychology) | Discrimination Learning | Psychological aspects | Research | Judgment | Conditionals (Logic)

Journal Article

Econometrica, ISSN 0012-9682, 5/2010, Volume 78, Issue 3, pp. 1093 - 1125

This paper proposes a method to address the longstanding problem of lack of monotonicity in estimation of conditional and structural quantile functions, also...

Veterans | Estimation theory | Population estimates | Inference | Mathematical functions | Quantile regression | Estimators | Consistent estimators | Distribution functions | Estimation methods | structural quantiles | isotonic regression | Conditional quantiles | monotonicity problem | functional delta method | rearrangement | Functional delta method | Isotonic regression | Monotonicity problem | Rearrangement | Structural quantiles | NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | UNIMODAL DENSITIES | WAGE STRUCTURE | IDENTIFICATION | INFERENCE | MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | REGRESSION QUANTILES | MODELS | ESTIMATORS | STRICTLY MONOTONE | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Veterans | Estimation theory | Population estimates | Inference | Mathematical functions | Quantile regression | Estimators | Consistent estimators | Distribution functions | Estimation methods | structural quantiles | isotonic regression | Conditional quantiles | monotonicity problem | functional delta method | rearrangement | Functional delta method | Isotonic regression | Monotonicity problem | Rearrangement | Structural quantiles | NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | UNIMODAL DENSITIES | WAGE STRUCTURE | IDENTIFICATION | INFERENCE | MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | REGRESSION QUANTILES | MODELS | ESTIMATORS | STRICTLY MONOTONE | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Journal Article

Environmental Modelling and Software, ISSN 1364-8152, 09/2014, Volume 59, pp. 1 - 9

In this paper a new receptor modelling method is developed to identify and characterise emission sources. The method is an extension of the commonly used...

Receptor model | Air quality data | Air pollution | Source identification | Dispersion model | Openair | REGRESSION | URBAN | VICINITY | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL | POLLUTANT | Analysis | Auks | Packages | Emission | Mathematical models | Models | Modelling | Dispersions | Conditional probability | Computer programs

Receptor model | Air quality data | Air pollution | Source identification | Dispersion model | Openair | REGRESSION | URBAN | VICINITY | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL | POLLUTANT | Analysis | Auks | Packages | Emission | Mathematical models | Models | Modelling | Dispersions | Conditional probability | Computer programs

Journal Article

Psychological Review, ISSN 0033-295X, 4/2011, Volume 118, Issue 2, pp. 193 - 218

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging...

Conjunction fallacy | Inference | Order effects | Disjunction fallacy | Quantum theory | inference | quantum theory | conjunction fallacy | disjunction fallacy | PSYCHOLOGY | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | MECHANICS | REPRESENTATIVENESS | MODELS | UNPACKING | FREQUENCY | UNCERTAINTY | FUZZY-TRACE THEORY | order effects | VIOLATIONS | CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY | Cognitive Processes | Comparative Analysis | Thinking Skills | Fundamental Concepts | Quantum Mechanics | Probability | Models | Cognitive Psychology | Error Patterns | Physics | Quantum Theory | Humans | Models, Psychological | Cognition | Mathematics | Models, Statistical | Judgment | Research

Conjunction fallacy | Inference | Order effects | Disjunction fallacy | Quantum theory | inference | quantum theory | conjunction fallacy | disjunction fallacy | PSYCHOLOGY | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | MECHANICS | REPRESENTATIVENESS | MODELS | UNPACKING | FREQUENCY | UNCERTAINTY | FUZZY-TRACE THEORY | order effects | VIOLATIONS | CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY | Cognitive Processes | Comparative Analysis | Thinking Skills | Fundamental Concepts | Quantum Mechanics | Probability | Models | Cognitive Psychology | Error Patterns | Physics | Quantum Theory | Humans | Models, Psychological | Cognition | Mathematics | Models, Statistical | Judgment | Research

Journal Article

Cognitive Psychology, ISSN 0010-0285, 2007, Volume 54, Issue 1, pp. 62 - 97

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional...

Ramsey test | Counterfactuals | Covariation | Causation | Causal conditionals | Conditional probability | Delta-p rule | covariation | CONTINGENCY | DATA-SELECTION | INFERENCE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | INDICATIVE CONDITIONALS | PSYCHOLOGY | JUDGMENT | MENTAL MODEL-THEORY | causation | counterfactuals | conditional probability | causal conditionals | delta-p rule | language | semantics | causal relations | conditional sentence | Decision Making | Language Research | Causal Models | Language Processing | Logical Thinking | Probability | Predictor Variables | Hypothesis Testing | Regression Analysis | Analysis of Variance | Probability Learning | Humans | Problem Solving | Statistics as Topic | Models, Statistical | Causality | Culture | Judgment | Cognition & reasoning | Decision making | Psychology

Ramsey test | Counterfactuals | Covariation | Causation | Causal conditionals | Conditional probability | Delta-p rule | covariation | CONTINGENCY | DATA-SELECTION | INFERENCE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | INDICATIVE CONDITIONALS | PSYCHOLOGY | JUDGMENT | MENTAL MODEL-THEORY | causation | counterfactuals | conditional probability | causal conditionals | delta-p rule | language | semantics | causal relations | conditional sentence | Decision Making | Language Research | Causal Models | Language Processing | Logical Thinking | Probability | Predictor Variables | Hypothesis Testing | Regression Analysis | Analysis of Variance | Probability Learning | Humans | Problem Solving | Statistics as Topic | Models, Statistical | Causality | Culture | Judgment | Cognition & reasoning | Decision making | Psychology

Journal Article

JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-LEARNING MEMORY AND COGNITION, ISSN 0278-7393, 10/2016, Volume 42, Issue 10, pp. 1606 - 1620

We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible...

NAIVE PROBABILITY | probabilistic logic | mental models | modal logic | INFERENCE | LOGIC | CONDITIONALS | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | BELIEF | PSYCHOLOGY | Logical Thinking | Validity | Thinking Skills | Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Signed Ranks Test | Prediction | Probability | United Kingdom | Models | Inferences | Foreign Countries | Statistical Analysis | Humans | Thinking | Models, Psychological | Adult | Female | Male | Psychological Tests | Logic | Reasoning | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Inference | Mental models | Modality effects | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

NAIVE PROBABILITY | probabilistic logic | mental models | modal logic | INFERENCE | LOGIC | CONDITIONALS | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | BELIEF | PSYCHOLOGY | Logical Thinking | Validity | Thinking Skills | Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Signed Ranks Test | Prediction | Probability | United Kingdom | Models | Inferences | Foreign Countries | Statistical Analysis | Humans | Thinking | Models, Psychological | Adult | Female | Male | Psychological Tests | Logic | Reasoning | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Inference | Mental models | Modality effects | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

Journal Article

Optimization Letters, ISSN 1862-4472, 9/2019, Volume 13, Issue 6, pp. 1223 - 1237

In stochastic optimization, probabilities naturally arise as cost functionals and chance constraints. Unfortunately, these functions are difficult to handle...

Conditional value-at-risk | Computational Intelligence | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Chance constraints | Mathematics | Numerical and Computational Physics, Simulation | Optimization | Risk measures | Stochastic programming | MATHEMATICS, APPLIED | DESIGN | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | RISK | OPTIMIZATION

Conditional value-at-risk | Computational Intelligence | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Chance constraints | Mathematics | Numerical and Computational Physics, Simulation | Optimization | Risk measures | Stochastic programming | MATHEMATICS, APPLIED | DESIGN | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | RISK | OPTIMIZATION

Journal Article