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The American Economic Review, ISSN 0002-8282, 6/2012, Volume 102, Issue 4, pp. 1692 - 1720
  Using micro-level data, we construct a credit spread index with considerable predictive power for future economic activity. We decompose the credit spread... 
Bond markets | Corporate bonds | Credit | Economic fluctuations | Economic forecasting | Shorter Papers | Credit risk | Yield curves | Bond issues | Financial bonds | Financial investments | STOCK RETURNS | ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY | LIQUIDITY | TERM STRUCTURE | YIELD CURVE | RISK | INTEREST-RATES | ECONOMICS | CORPORATE-BONDS | DEFAULT | Macroeconomics | Research | Business cycles | Credit market | Bonds | Studies | Economic models | Spread | Economic theory
Journal Article
The American economic review, ISSN 0002-8282, 2011, Volume 101, Issue 6, pp. 2844 - 2872
Journal Article
2012, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w17900
This paper considers business cycle models with agents who dislike both risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Web Resource
The American Economic Review, ISSN 0002-8282, 8/2016, Volume 106, Issue 8, pp. 2256 - 2303
I use micro data to quantify key features of US firm financing. In particular, I establish that a substantial 35 percent of firms' investment is funded using... 
LIQUIDITY | MODELS | CREDIT SPREADS | RIGIDITIES | MONETARY-POLICY | INTEREST-RATES | ECONOMICS | BAYESIAN DSGE APPROACH | SHOCKS | FRICTIONS | Personal narratives | Equilibrium (Economics) | Financial markets | Business cycles | Studies | Economic models | Corporate finance | Investment policy | Investments | United States--US | Bayesian analysis | Securities markets
Journal Article
World Development, ISSN 0305-750X, 05/2015, Volume 69, pp. 44 - 61
We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and 113 recipients during 1970–2005. We find that bilateral aid flows... 
business cycle | foreign aid | macroeconomic shocks | bilateral donors | Foreign aid | Bilateral donors | Macroeconomic shocks | Business cycle | COLD-WAR | COUNTRIES | BIAS | DEPENDENCE | PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT | DETERMINES | POLICY | ECONOMICS | PANEL-DATA MODELS | FLOWS | FOREIGN-AID | Business cycles | Macroeconomics | Studies | Estimating techniques | Economic development | Developing countries--LDCs
Journal Article
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, ISSN 0165-1889, 12/2015, Volume 61, pp. 133 - 151
We contribute to an emerging literature that brings the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) specification of the production function into the analysis of... 
CES production function | Bayesian estimation | DSGE model | Imperfect information | TECHNICAL CHANGE | MODELS | ECONOMICS | FACTOR SUBSTITUTION | LONG | Business cycles | Analysis | Studies | Elasticity | Production functions | Bayesian analysis | Equilibrium
Journal Article
2014, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w19973.
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations Cycles
Web Resource
2014, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w20101
Recessions often happen after periods of rapid accumulation of houses, consumer durables and business capital. This observation has led some economists, most... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations Cycles
Web Resource
2013, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w19418.
In response to the Financial Crisis of 2008, macroeconomic policymakers employed a range of tools designed to prevent failures of large, complex financial... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations Cycles
Web Resource
Review of Economic Dynamics, ISSN 1094-2025, 01/2017, Volume 23, pp. 19 - 41
This paper sheds new light on the interactions between business cycles and the consumption distribution. We use CEX consumption data and a factor model to... 
Consumption | FAVAR | Cost of business cycles | Structural factor model | Inequality | HETEROGENEITY | POLICY | ECONOMICS | Business cycles | Analysis | Consumption (Economics)
Journal Article
Managerial Economics, ISSN 1898-1143, 2015, Volume 16, Issue 2, pp. 175 - 188
Journal Article
Applied Economics Letters, ISSN 1350-4851, 06/2017, Volume 24, Issue 11, pp. 795 - 799
This article examines the relationship between public investment and regional business cycle fluctuations in Japan. In particular, we focus on the effects of... 
E62 | fiscal policy volatility | R11 | H30 | E32 | H54 | Regional public investment | 'Discretionary' changes in public expenditures | business cycle fluctuation | ‘Discretionary’ changes in public expenditures | ECONOMICS | "Discretionary' changes in public expenditures | Business cycles | Economic models | Investment
Journal Article
2010, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w16162
This paper surveys efforts to automate the dating of business cycle turning points. Doing this on a real time, out-of-sample basis is a bigger challenge than... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Web Resource
The Journal of Economic Perspectives, ISSN 0895-3309, 4/2014, Volume 28, Issue 2, pp. 153 - 175
Journal Article
Economics of Education Review, ISSN 0272-7757, 06/2013, Volume 34, pp. 122 - 134
► Female graduate school enrollment is countercyclical but male enrollment is acyclical. ► Business cycle fluctuations have non-linear impacts on female... 
Higher education | Business cycles | Graduate school | EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH | CYCLICALITY | COLLEGE | LABOR-MARKET CONDITIONS | PERSISTENCE | HIGHER-EDUCATION | ECONOMICS | Attendance | Labor Market | Gender Differences | Enrollment | Unemployment | Economic Climate | Labor market | School enrollment
Journal Article
Economic Modelling, ISSN 0264-9993, 02/2016, Volume 53, pp. 179 - 186
Journal Article
European Economic Review, ISSN 0014-2921, 10/2015, Volume 79, pp. 214 - 233
We investigate the cyclicality of the household saving to household disposable income ratio for a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1969–2012. We find... 
Credit constraints | Household saving | Dynamic panel | Business cycle | Precautionary saving | HETEROGENEOUS PANELS | AUTOCORRELATION | WEALTH | RATES | MODELS | GROWTH | PERMANENT INCOME | VARIABLES | ECONOMICS | CONSUMPTION | Business cycles | Unemployment | Analysis | Studies | Savings | Recessions | Industrialized nations | Manycountries | Disposable income
Journal Article
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, ISSN 1945-7731, 11/2018, Volume 10, Issue 4, pp. 153 - 176
One-in-seven Americans received benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in 2011, an all-time high. We analyze changes in program enrollment... 
FOOD STAMP PROGRAM | RESPONSES | LIMITS | SAFETY NET | RECERTIFICATION | ECONOMICS | IMPACTS | Nutrition | Food stamps | Enrollments | Unemployment | Error of measurement
Journal Article
2014, NBER working paper series, Volume no. w19900
Intangible capital is an important factor of production in modern economies that is generally neglected in business cycle analyses. We demonstrate that... 
E32 - Business Fluctuations Cycles | E13 - Neoclassical
Web Resource
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