Cognitive Psychology, ISSN 0010-0285, 09/2016, Volume 89, pp. 106 - 133

•Presents a model of conditional probability judgment that follows probability theory...

Probability | Biases | Conditional probability | Rationality | Heuristics | COGNITIVE BIASES | INFORMATION | MODEL | FUTURE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | CONJUNCTION FALLACY | PSYCHOLOGY | DECISION-MAKING | MEMORY | FREQUENCY | Models, Psychological | Probability Theory | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Judgment | Geometric probabilities | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Probability judgments | Noise | Bias | Psychology | Problem solving | Probability distribution | Cognitive psychology

Probability | Biases | Conditional probability | Rationality | Heuristics | COGNITIVE BIASES | INFORMATION | MODEL | FUTURE | PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL | CONJUNCTION FALLACY | PSYCHOLOGY | DECISION-MAKING | MEMORY | FREQUENCY | Models, Psychological | Probability Theory | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Judgment | Geometric probabilities | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Probability judgments | Noise | Bias | Psychology | Problem solving | Probability distribution | Cognitive psychology

Journal Article

PloS one, ISSN 1932-6203, 2019, Volume 14, Issue 2, p. e0212302

The prior probabilities of true outcomes for scientific replication have to be uniform by definition...

MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES | Binomial Distribution | Data Interpretation, Statistical | Clinical Trials as Topic - statistics & numerical data | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Probability | Models, Statistical | Geometric probabilities | DNA replication | Research | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Spreadsheets | Genetic markers | Distribution (Probability theory)

MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES | Binomial Distribution | Data Interpretation, Statistical | Clinical Trials as Topic - statistics & numerical data | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Probability | Models, Statistical | Geometric probabilities | DNA replication | Research | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Spreadsheets | Genetic markers | Distribution (Probability theory)

Journal Article

Journal of risk and uncertainty, ISSN 0895-5646, 6/2014, Volume 48, Issue 3, pp. 207 - 229

Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled...

Risk aversion | Financial risk | Utility functions | Psychological attitudes | Risk aversion preference | Lotteries | Curvature | Game theory | Probabilities | Term weighting | D84 | Risk attitudes | Subjective probabilities | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Microeconomics | Environmental Economics | Economic Theory | Scoring rules | Economics / Management Science | ELICITED BELIEFS | RISK-AVERSION | UTILITY-FUNCTIONS | EXPECTED UTILITY | BUSINESS, FINANCE | ELICITATION | UNCERTAINTY | PRIVATE INFORMATION | AMBIGUITY | ECONOMICS | EXPECTATIONS | Usage | Analysis | Consumer preferences | Geometric probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Studies | Probability | Economic models | Risk | Estimating techniques | Economic theory

Risk aversion | Financial risk | Utility functions | Psychological attitudes | Risk aversion preference | Lotteries | Curvature | Game theory | Probabilities | Term weighting | D84 | Risk attitudes | Subjective probabilities | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Microeconomics | Environmental Economics | Economic Theory | Scoring rules | Economics / Management Science | ELICITED BELIEFS | RISK-AVERSION | UTILITY-FUNCTIONS | EXPECTED UTILITY | BUSINESS, FINANCE | ELICITATION | UNCERTAINTY | PRIVATE INFORMATION | AMBIGUITY | ECONOMICS | EXPECTATIONS | Usage | Analysis | Consumer preferences | Geometric probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Studies | Probability | Economic models | Risk | Estimating techniques | Economic theory

Journal Article

Management science, ISSN 0025-1909, 2013, Volume 59, Issue 2, pp. 341 - 357

... -divergences arise in a natural way as confidence sets if the uncertain parameters contain elements of a probability vector...

divergence | robust optimization | goodness-of-fit statistics | Mathematical problems | Investment risk | Robust optimization | Management science | Probability distributions | Finance | Adjoints | Expected utility | Probabilities | Estimators | φ-divergence | Goodness-of-fit statistics | MANAGEMENT | MULTIITEM NEWSVENDOR PROBLEM | INFORMATION | phi-divergence | RISK | DIVERGENCES | OF-FIT TESTS | MODEL | CONSTRAINT | PORTFOLIO SELECTION | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | DUALITY | Robust statistics | Geometric probabilities | Mathematical optimization | Analysis | Combinatorial probabilities

divergence | robust optimization | goodness-of-fit statistics | Mathematical problems | Investment risk | Robust optimization | Management science | Probability distributions | Finance | Adjoints | Expected utility | Probabilities | Estimators | φ-divergence | Goodness-of-fit statistics | MANAGEMENT | MULTIITEM NEWSVENDOR PROBLEM | INFORMATION | phi-divergence | RISK | DIVERGENCES | OF-FIT TESTS | MODEL | CONSTRAINT | PORTFOLIO SELECTION | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | DUALITY | Robust statistics | Geometric probabilities | Mathematical optimization | Analysis | Combinatorial probabilities

Journal Article

The Annals of probability, ISSN 0091-1798, 2016, Volume 44, Issue 5, pp. 3385 - 3398

.... This implies that at criticality the crossing probabilities for rectangles are bounded by constants depending only on their aspect ratio...

Mathematical theorems | Colors | Rectangles | Geometric planes | Mathematical lattices | Tessellations | Polynomials | Random variables | Aspect ratio | Probabilities | Crossing probabilities | Box-crossing property | Voronoi percolation | Russo-Seymour-Welsh theory | THEOREM | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | CONTINUUM PERCOLATION | box-crossing property | crossing probabilities

Mathematical theorems | Colors | Rectangles | Geometric planes | Mathematical lattices | Tessellations | Polynomials | Random variables | Aspect ratio | Probabilities | Crossing probabilities | Box-crossing property | Voronoi percolation | Russo-Seymour-Welsh theory | THEOREM | STATISTICS & PROBABILITY | CONTINUUM PERCOLATION | box-crossing property | crossing probabilities

Journal Article

Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, ISSN 1751-8113, 09/2016, Volume 49, Issue 40, p. 405001

.... We tabulate diagrams with 10 and fewer crossings and classify the diagrams by knot type, allowing us to compute exact probabilities for knots in this model...

knot diagram | random knot | knot probability | knot frequency | PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | INVARIANTS | COMPLEXITY | GENERATION | PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL | CURVES | GRAPHS | Mathematics - Geometric Topology

knot diagram | random knot | knot probability | knot frequency | PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | INVARIANTS | COMPLEXITY | GENERATION | PHYSICS, MATHEMATICAL | CURVES | GRAPHS | Mathematics - Geometric Topology

Journal Article

Foundations of Physics, ISSN 0015-9018, 7/2015, Volume 45, Issue 7, pp. 711 - 725

..., the “quantum probabilities” have to be interpreted as conditional probabilities, where conditioning is with respect to fixed experimental settings...

CHSH inequality | Philosophy of Science | Quantum Physics | Randomness of experimental settings | No signaling | Statistical Physics, Dynamical Systems and Complexity | Physics | Kolmogorov probability model | History and Philosophical Foundations of Physics | Bell inequality | Conditional probabilities | Mechanics | Classical and quantum probability | Classical and Quantum Gravitation, Relativity Theory | PARADOX | NONLOCALITY | PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | INFORMATION | Geometric probabilities | Research | Bell's theorem | Quantum theory | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

CHSH inequality | Philosophy of Science | Quantum Physics | Randomness of experimental settings | No signaling | Statistical Physics, Dynamical Systems and Complexity | Physics | Kolmogorov probability model | History and Philosophical Foundations of Physics | Bell inequality | Conditional probabilities | Mechanics | Classical and quantum probability | Classical and Quantum Gravitation, Relativity Theory | PARADOX | NONLOCALITY | PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | INFORMATION | Geometric probabilities | Research | Bell's theorem | Quantum theory | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

Journal Article

IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems, ISSN 0278-0070, 09/2011, Volume 30, Issue 9, pp. 1279 - 1292

.... Generally, each source has a fixed bias and so provides bits with a specific probability of being one...

Logic synthesis | random bit streams | Transforms | Logic gates | Probabilistic logic | Inverters | Generators | Polynomials | stochastic bit streams | Switching circuits | probabilistic signals | probabilistic logic | COMPUTER SCIENCE, HARDWARE & ARCHITECTURE | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC | Usage | Circuit design | Digital integrated circuits | Stochastic processes | Geometric probabilities | Design and construction | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Studies | Probability | Design engineering | Reproduction | Probability theory | Logic | Computer aided design | Optimization | Streams

Logic synthesis | random bit streams | Transforms | Logic gates | Probabilistic logic | Inverters | Generators | Polynomials | stochastic bit streams | Switching circuits | probabilistic signals | probabilistic logic | COMPUTER SCIENCE, HARDWARE & ARCHITECTURE | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC | Usage | Circuit design | Digital integrated circuits | Stochastic processes | Geometric probabilities | Design and construction | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Studies | Probability | Design engineering | Reproduction | Probability theory | Logic | Computer aided design | Optimization | Streams

Journal Article

Annual review of economics, ISSN 1941-1383, 1/2009, Volume 1, Issue 1, pp. 543 - 562

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand intertemporal decision making...

Economic expectations | Probability distributions | Market surveys | Mortality | Life tables | Men | Economic surveys | Stock markets | Retirement | Age | SURVIVAL | focal point responses | SOCIAL-SECURITY | RETIREMENT | stock market expectations | RETURNS | subjective survival | MODELS | retirement expectations | PANEL DATA | PORTFOLIO CHOICE | ECONOMICS | HEALTH | EXPECTATIONS | stock market expectations; subjective survival; retirement expectations; focal point responses | Geometric probabilities | Household surveys | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Stock market expectations

Economic expectations | Probability distributions | Market surveys | Mortality | Life tables | Men | Economic surveys | Stock markets | Retirement | Age | SURVIVAL | focal point responses | SOCIAL-SECURITY | RETIREMENT | stock market expectations | RETURNS | subjective survival | MODELS | retirement expectations | PANEL DATA | PORTFOLIO CHOICE | ECONOMICS | HEALTH | EXPECTATIONS | stock market expectations; subjective survival; retirement expectations; focal point responses | Geometric probabilities | Household surveys | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Stock market expectations

Journal Article

Management science, ISSN 0025-1909, 4/2012, Volume 58, Issue 4, pp. 831 - 842

Probability and time are integral dimensions of virtually any decision. To treat them together, we consider the prospect of receiving outcome x with a probability p at time...

psychological distance | time preferences | subendurance | magnitude effect | risk preferences | probability discount rate | Risk aversion | Discounting | Economic models | Management science | Financial risk | Risk premiums | Risk preferences | Weighting functions | Distance functions | Term weighting | Subendurance | Psychological distance | Magnitude effect | Probability discount rate | Time preferences | CERTAINTY | DECISION | MANAGEMENT | BEHAVIOR | RISK | INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE | RATIONALITY | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | INCONSISTENCY | PREFERENCE | UTILITY | PROSPECT-THEORY | Functional equations | Geometric probabilities | Functions | Research | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

psychological distance | time preferences | subendurance | magnitude effect | risk preferences | probability discount rate | Risk aversion | Discounting | Economic models | Management science | Financial risk | Risk premiums | Risk preferences | Weighting functions | Distance functions | Term weighting | Subendurance | Psychological distance | Magnitude effect | Probability discount rate | Time preferences | CERTAINTY | DECISION | MANAGEMENT | BEHAVIOR | RISK | INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE | RATIONALITY | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | INCONSISTENCY | PREFERENCE | UTILITY | PROSPECT-THEORY | Functional equations | Geometric probabilities | Functions | Research | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

Journal Article

Psychological Methods, ISSN 1082-989X, 6/2010, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 158 - 171

P. R. Killeen's (2005a) probability of replication ( p rep ) of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment...

Killeen's p | p values | Bayesian inference | Fiducial inference | Predictive probabilities | CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS | SIZE | RESEARCHERS | BAYESIAN-APPROACH | INFERENCE | P-VALUES | DISTRIBUTIONS | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | predictive probabilities | fiducial inference | CLINICAL-TRIALS | SIGNIFICANCE TESTS | Killeen's p(rep) | Measurement Techniques | Bayesian Statistics | Probability | Hypothesis Testing | Research Methodology | Null Hypothesis | Experiments | Guidelines | Validity | Evaluation Problems | Predictive Measurement | Misconceptions | Computation | Statistical Inference | Replication (Evaluation) | Evaluation Methods | Reliability | Research Design | P Values | Confidence Intervals | Reproducibility of Results | Analysis of Variance | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Psychology - statistics & numerical data | Models, Psychological | Models, Statistical | Mathematical Computing | Psychology | Geometric probabilities | Experimental studies | Research | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Humanities and Social Sciences | Methodology | Statistics

Killeen's p | p values | Bayesian inference | Fiducial inference | Predictive probabilities | CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS | SIZE | RESEARCHERS | BAYESIAN-APPROACH | INFERENCE | P-VALUES | DISTRIBUTIONS | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | predictive probabilities | fiducial inference | CLINICAL-TRIALS | SIGNIFICANCE TESTS | Killeen's p(rep) | Measurement Techniques | Bayesian Statistics | Probability | Hypothesis Testing | Research Methodology | Null Hypothesis | Experiments | Guidelines | Validity | Evaluation Problems | Predictive Measurement | Misconceptions | Computation | Statistical Inference | Replication (Evaluation) | Evaluation Methods | Reliability | Research Design | P Values | Confidence Intervals | Reproducibility of Results | Analysis of Variance | Humans | Bayes Theorem | Psychology - statistics & numerical data | Models, Psychological | Models, Statistical | Mathematical Computing | Psychology | Geometric probabilities | Experimental studies | Research | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Humanities and Social Sciences | Methodology | Statistics

Journal Article

Stanford Law Review, ISSN 0038-9765, 2015, Volume 67, Issue 6, pp. 1447 - 1503

.... Instead of telling juries the "source probability" the probability that the individual whose DNA matches was the source of the forensic evidence found at the crime scene experts only present pieces of the puzzle...

TRIAL | JURORS | BATTERER | LAW | DATABASE | NUMBERS | LIKELIHOOD RATIOS | SUSPECT | Bayesian statistical decision theory | Usage | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Evidence (Law) | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Ex-convicts | Databases | Criminal investigations | Corrective advertising | Probability | Evidence | Genetic testing | Deoxyribonucleic acid--DNA

TRIAL | JURORS | BATTERER | LAW | DATABASE | NUMBERS | LIKELIHOOD RATIOS | SUSPECT | Bayesian statistical decision theory | Usage | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Evidence (Law) | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Ex-convicts | Databases | Criminal investigations | Corrective advertising | Probability | Evidence | Genetic testing | Deoxyribonucleic acid--DNA

Journal Article

Mind, ISSN 0026-4423, 07/2016, Volume 125, Issue 499, pp. 759 - 762

In response to Smith (2014), I argue that probabilities cannot be rationally neglected...

PHILOSOPHY | Geometric probabilities | Values | Dominance (Psychology) | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

PHILOSOPHY | Geometric probabilities | Values | Dominance (Psychology) | Analysis | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities

Journal Article

10/2016, Cambridge studies in advanced mathematics, ISBN 9781107134119, Volume 162, 416

.... Building up from basic techniques of geometric measure theory and probability, central topics such as Hausdorff dimension, self-similar sets and Brownian motion are introduced, as are more...

Geometric analysis | Probability measures | Fractal analysis

Geometric analysis | Probability measures | Fractal analysis

eBook

Philosophy of science, ISSN 0031-8248, 12/2017, Volume 84, Issue 5, pp. 866 - 878

...; he also claimed success. Some commentators argue that Newton ultimately gave up claims of certainty in favor of a high degree of probability...

HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE | Criticism and interpretation | Analysis | Certainty | Geometric probabilities | Physicists | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Newton, Isaac (English physicist)

HISTORY & PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE | Criticism and interpretation | Analysis | Certainty | Geometric probabilities | Physicists | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Newton, Isaac (English physicist)

Journal Article

Forensic Science International, ISSN 0379-0738, 2016, Volume 270, pp. e20 - e25

.... • The critique is fundamentally flawed due to the mishandling of probabilities. • LaMotte and Wells overlooked the positive contribution of the succession model.

Pathology | Forensic modeling | Bayes product of odds method | Probability combination | SUCCESSION | MEDICINE, LEGAL | Usage | Degree days | Forensic entomology | Postmortem changes | Geometric probabilities | Research | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Wells, Jeffrey | LaMotte, Lynn | Probability | Witnesses

Pathology | Forensic modeling | Bayes product of odds method | Probability combination | SUCCESSION | MEDICINE, LEGAL | Usage | Degree days | Forensic entomology | Postmortem changes | Geometric probabilities | Research | Methods | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Wells, Jeffrey | LaMotte, Lynn | Probability | Witnesses

Journal Article

Management Science, ISSN 0025-1909, 5/2018, Volume 64, Issue 5, pp. 2407 - 2426

Many probability forecasts are revised as new information becomes available, generating a time series of forecasts for a single event...

time series | probability forecasts | inference | decision analysis | scoring rules | Probability forecasts | Inference | Decision analysis | Scoring rules | Time series | TESTS | PRICES | MANAGEMENT | MARKETS | MODEL | PREDICTION | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | ELICITATION | PROPER | EFFICIENCY | Usage | Geometric probabilities | Time-series analysis | Forecasting | Probabilities | Methods | Combinatorial probabilities | Decision-making | Analysis | Forecasts and trends

time series | probability forecasts | inference | decision analysis | scoring rules | Probability forecasts | Inference | Decision analysis | Scoring rules | Time series | TESTS | PRICES | MANAGEMENT | MARKETS | MODEL | PREDICTION | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | ELICITATION | PROPER | EFFICIENCY | Usage | Geometric probabilities | Time-series analysis | Forecasting | Probabilities | Methods | Combinatorial probabilities | Decision-making | Analysis | Forecasts and trends

Journal Article

PloS one, ISSN 1932-6203, 2019, Volume 14, Issue 4, p. e0213522

People interpret verbal expressions of probabilities (e.g. 'very likely') in different ways, yet words are commonly preferred to numbers when communicating uncertainty...

EXPRESSIONS | DECISIONS | WORDS | DIRECTIONALITY | MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES | FREQUENCY | Verbal Behavior - physiology | Uncertainty | Humans | Adult | Female | Male | Decision Making - physiology | Confusion | Judgment - physiology | Decision-making | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Translating and interpreting | Probabilities | Communication | Combinatorial probabilities | Climate change | Statistical analysis | Intelligence services | Intelligence | Decision making | Psychology | Probability | Intelligence gathering | Translations | Guidelines

EXPRESSIONS | DECISIONS | WORDS | DIRECTIONALITY | MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES | FREQUENCY | Verbal Behavior - physiology | Uncertainty | Humans | Adult | Female | Male | Decision Making - physiology | Confusion | Judgment - physiology | Decision-making | Analysis | Geometric probabilities | Translating and interpreting | Probabilities | Communication | Combinatorial probabilities | Climate change | Statistical analysis | Intelligence services | Intelligence | Decision making | Psychology | Probability | Intelligence gathering | Translations | Guidelines

Journal Article

European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, 02/2016, Volume 249, Issue 1, pp. 298 - 311

•We provide a methodology to accurately evaluate firm default probability.•Multivariate contingent claim model on balance sheet data for firm asset value...

Multivariate contingent claim | Vines | Default probability | Markov chain Monte Carlo | Pair copula | MIXTURE | CORPORATE-DEBT | MODEL | INFERENCE | REGULATED MARKET | PREDICTION | DEPENDENCE | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | NONPARAMETRIC-ESTIMATION | FINANCIAL RATIOS | Bayesian statistical decision theory | Analysis | Mixture models | Geometric probabilities | Models | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Markov processes | Monte Carlo method | Distribution (Probability theory)

Multivariate contingent claim | Vines | Default probability | Markov chain Monte Carlo | Pair copula | MIXTURE | CORPORATE-DEBT | MODEL | INFERENCE | REGULATED MARKET | PREDICTION | DEPENDENCE | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | NONPARAMETRIC-ESTIMATION | FINANCIAL RATIOS | Bayesian statistical decision theory | Analysis | Mixture models | Geometric probabilities | Models | Probabilities | Combinatorial probabilities | Markov processes | Monte Carlo method | Distribution (Probability theory)

Journal Article