Journal of Health Economics, ISSN 0167-6296, 07/2016, Volume 48, pp. 121 - 134

This paper performs several tests of decision analysis applied to the health domain. First, we conduct a test of the normative expected utility theory. Second,...

Certainty equivalences | Prospect theory | QALYs | Utility function | Loss aversion | TESTS | DECISION | RISK | MODEL | HETEROGENEITY | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | PREFERENCES | HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES | UNCERTAINTY | HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES | SURVIVAL DURATION | ECONOMICS | Quality of Life | Humans | Decision Support Techniques | Health | Decision analysis | Clinical outcomes | Quality of life | Studies | Risks | Risk aversion | Utility | Health status | Utility theory | Violations | Decision theory | Aversion | Elicitation | Deviation | Expected utility | Avoidance | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Certainty equivalences | Prospect theory | QALYs | Utility function | Loss aversion | TESTS | DECISION | RISK | MODEL | HETEROGENEITY | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | PREFERENCES | HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES | UNCERTAINTY | HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES | SURVIVAL DURATION | ECONOMICS | Quality of Life | Humans | Decision Support Techniques | Health | Decision analysis | Clinical outcomes | Quality of life | Studies | Risks | Risk aversion | Utility | Health status | Utility theory | Violations | Decision theory | Aversion | Elicitation | Deviation | Expected utility | Avoidance | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Journal Article

Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, 05/2006, Volume 60, Issue 2, pp. 315 - 334

Elicitation methods in decision-making under risk allow us to infer the utilities of outcomes as well as the probability weights from the observed preferences...

elicitation | decision theory | von Neumannâ€“Morgenstern utility | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | rank-dependent expected utility | Economics / Management Science | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory | Methodology of the Social Sciences | C91 | Game Theory/Mathematical Methods | probability weighting | D81 | cumulative prospect theory | Elicitation | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Rank-dependent expected utility | Decision theory | Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility | LOSSES | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | von Neumann-Morgenstern utility | Studies | Probability | Expected utility

elicitation | decision theory | von Neumannâ€“Morgenstern utility | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | rank-dependent expected utility | Economics / Management Science | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory | Methodology of the Social Sciences | C91 | Game Theory/Mathematical Methods | probability weighting | D81 | cumulative prospect theory | Elicitation | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Rank-dependent expected utility | Decision theory | Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility | LOSSES | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | von Neumann-Morgenstern utility | Studies | Probability | Expected utility

Journal Article

Management Science, ISSN 0025-1909, 09/2005, Volume 51, Issue 9, pp. 1384 - 1399

This paper reports the results of an experimental parameter-free elicitation and decomposition of decision weights under uncertainty. Assuming cumulative...

choice-based probabilities | decision weights | decision under uncertainty | probability weighting | cumulative prospect theory | Choquet expected utility | Statistical median | Linear interpolation | Ambivalence | Approximation | Utility functions | Mathematical independent variables | Weighting functions | Curvature | T tests | Probabilities | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Decision under uncertainty | Choice-based probabilities | Decision weights | MANAGEMENT | REPRESENTATION | RISKY CHOICE | EXPECTED-UTILITY-THEORY | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY | AVERSION | AMBIGUITY | ADDITIVITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | decision under uncertainty; Choquet expected utility; cumulative prospect theory; decision weights; choice-based probabilities; probability weighting | Decision-making | Risk assessment | Models | Studies | Uncertainty | Management science | Decision making models

choice-based probabilities | decision weights | decision under uncertainty | probability weighting | cumulative prospect theory | Choquet expected utility | Statistical median | Linear interpolation | Ambivalence | Approximation | Utility functions | Mathematical independent variables | Weighting functions | Curvature | T tests | Probabilities | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Decision under uncertainty | Choice-based probabilities | Decision weights | MANAGEMENT | REPRESENTATION | RISKY CHOICE | EXPECTED-UTILITY-THEORY | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY | AVERSION | AMBIGUITY | ADDITIVITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | decision under uncertainty; Choquet expected utility; cumulative prospect theory; decision weights; choice-based probabilities; probability weighting | Decision-making | Risk assessment | Models | Studies | Uncertainty | Management science | Decision making models

Journal Article

Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, 7/2011, Volume 71, Issue 1, pp. 63 - 80

Risk attitude is known to be a key determinant of various economic and financial choices. Behavioral studies that aim to evaluate the role of risk attitudes in...

Risk aversion | Risk attitudes | Prospect theory | Decision theory | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory | Methodology of the Social Sciences | Game Theory/Mathematical Methods | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | Elicitation methods | Economics / Management Science | BEHAVIOR | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | UTILITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | Studies | Attitudes | Behavioral decision theory | Bias | Utilities | Risk | Minimization | Lotteries | Tolerances | Optimization | domain_shs.eco.eco | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Risk aversion | Risk attitudes | Prospect theory | Decision theory | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory | Methodology of the Social Sciences | Game Theory/Mathematical Methods | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | Elicitation methods | Economics / Management Science | BEHAVIOR | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | UTILITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | Studies | Attitudes | Behavioral decision theory | Bias | Utilities | Risk | Minimization | Lotteries | Tolerances | Optimization | domain_shs.eco.eco | Economies and finances | Humanities and Social Sciences

Journal Article

Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, 6/2018, Volume 84, Issue 4, pp. 627 - 644

In comparing different risk elicitation methods under the assumptions of expected utility theory, previous studies have found significant differences in the...

Economics | Tanakaâ€“Camererâ€“Nguyen method | Behavioral/Experimental Economics | Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | Risk attitude | Wakkerâ€“Deneffe method | COTTON FARMERS | TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION DECISIONS | TIME-PREFERENCES | BEHAVIOR | FINANCIAL RISK | EXPECTED UTILITY | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | Wakker-Deneffe method | Tanaka-Camerer-Nguyen method | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | AVERSION | ECONOMICS | PROSPECT-THEORY | Rural development | Methods | Economic models | Weighting | Utility theory | Probability | Attitudes | Risk | Probabilistic methods | Expected utility

Economics | Tanakaâ€“Camererâ€“Nguyen method | Behavioral/Experimental Economics | Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance | Operations Research/Decision Theory | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods | Probability weighting | Cumulative prospect theory | Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences | Risk attitude | Wakkerâ€“Deneffe method | COTTON FARMERS | TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION DECISIONS | TIME-PREFERENCES | BEHAVIOR | FINANCIAL RISK | EXPECTED UTILITY | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | Wakker-Deneffe method | Tanaka-Camerer-Nguyen method | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | AVERSION | ECONOMICS | PROSPECT-THEORY | Rural development | Methods | Economic models | Weighting | Utility theory | Probability | Attitudes | Risk | Probabilistic methods | Expected utility

Journal Article

Management Science, ISSN 0025-1909, 11/2001, Volume 47, Issue 11, pp. 1498 - 1514

This paper proposes a quantitative modification of standard utility elicitation procedures, such as the probability and certainty equivalence methods, to...

Loss Aversion | Utility Elicitation | Probability Transformation | Risk aversion | Prospect theory | Ambivalence | Health outcomes | Utility functions | Tradeoffs | Expected utility | Decision analysis | Loss aversion | Normativity | DECISION-ANALYSIS | MANAGEMENT | BIASES | loss aversion | utility elicitation | RISKY CHOICE | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | REDUCTION | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY | FRAMEWORK | probability transformation | HEALTH-STATE UTILITIES | Utility Elicitation; Probability Transformation; Loss Aversion | Evaluation | Usage | Utility theory | Decision theory | Analysis | Probabilities | Studies | Probability

Loss Aversion | Utility Elicitation | Probability Transformation | Risk aversion | Prospect theory | Ambivalence | Health outcomes | Utility functions | Tradeoffs | Expected utility | Decision analysis | Loss aversion | Normativity | DECISION-ANALYSIS | MANAGEMENT | BIASES | loss aversion | utility elicitation | RISKY CHOICE | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | REDUCTION | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY | FRAMEWORK | probability transformation | HEALTH-STATE UTILITIES | Utility Elicitation; Probability Transformation; Loss Aversion | Evaluation | Usage | Utility theory | Decision theory | Analysis | Probabilities | Studies | Probability

Journal Article

Theory and Decision, ISSN 0040-5833, 09/2010, Volume 69, Issue 3, pp. 395 - 416

The response mode bias, in which subjects exhibit different risk attitudes when assessing certainty equivalents versus indifference probabilities, is a...

Cardinal measurement | Risk preference | Arrow-Pratt measure | Gain and loss | Response mode bias | Utility elicitation | Probabilities | BEHAVIOR | EXPECTED UTILITY | DECISION WEIGHTS | CHOICE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | RISK-ATTITUDES | COMPATIBILITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | Analysis | Electric utilities | Studies | Probability | Behavior | Decision making | Polyethylenes | Utilities | Equivalence | Bias | Risk | Lotteries | Assessments | Gain

Cardinal measurement | Risk preference | Arrow-Pratt measure | Gain and loss | Response mode bias | Utility elicitation | Probabilities | BEHAVIOR | EXPECTED UTILITY | DECISION WEIGHTS | CHOICE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | UNCERTAINTY | SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS | ECONOMICS | RISK-ATTITUDES | COMPATIBILITY | PREFERENCE | PROSPECT-THEORY | Analysis | Electric utilities | Studies | Probability | Behavior | Decision making | Polyethylenes | Utilities | Equivalence | Bias | Risk | Lotteries | Assessments | Gain

Journal Article

European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, 11/2012, Volume 223, Issue 1, pp. 1 - 14

â–º A review of multiple criteria decision analysis under uncertainty. â–º Reviews probabilities, decision weights, risk criteria, fuzzy sets and scenarios. â–º...

Decision analysis | Risk management | Uncertainty modeling | Multiple criteria analysis | ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS | ROUGH APPROXIMATION | PREFERENCE-RELATION | FUZZY TOPSIS METHOD | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | REASONABLE PROPERTIES | EXTENT ANALYSIS METHOD | EVIDENTIAL REASONING APPROACH | LOGARITHMIC LEAST-SQUARES | PROSPECT-THEORY | Decision-making | Analysis | Models | Quantiles | Uncertainty | Decision making | Operational research | Criteria | Assessments | Fuzzy systems

Decision analysis | Risk management | Uncertainty modeling | Multiple criteria analysis | ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS | ROUGH APPROXIMATION | PREFERENCE-RELATION | FUZZY TOPSIS METHOD | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | REASONABLE PROPERTIES | EXTENT ANALYSIS METHOD | EVIDENTIAL REASONING APPROACH | LOGARITHMIC LEAST-SQUARES | PROSPECT-THEORY | Decision-making | Analysis | Models | Quantiles | Uncertainty | Decision making | Operational research | Criteria | Assessments | Fuzzy systems

Journal Article

9.
Full Text
Risk decision analysis in emergency response: A method based on cumulative prospect theory

Computers and Operations Research, ISSN 0305-0548, 02/2014, Volume 42, pp. 75 - 82

Emergency response of a disaster is generally a risk decision-making problem with multiple states. In emergency response analysis, it is necessary to consider...

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) | Ranking | Risk decision-making | Emergency response | CRITERIA | MANAGEMENT | TREE ANALYSIS | SUPPORT | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DISAPPOINTMENT | UNCERTAINTY | AVERSION | ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL | FLOOD-CONTROL | Decision-making | Evacuation of civilians | Safety and security measures | Methods | Disasters | Decision making | Mathematical analysis | Emergencies | Criteria | Risk analysis | Decision analysis

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) | Ranking | Risk decision-making | Emergency response | CRITERIA | MANAGEMENT | TREE ANALYSIS | SUPPORT | COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DISAPPOINTMENT | UNCERTAINTY | AVERSION | ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL | FLOOD-CONTROL | Decision-making | Evacuation of civilians | Safety and security measures | Methods | Disasters | Decision making | Mathematical analysis | Emergencies | Criteria | Risk analysis | Decision analysis

Journal Article

Journal of Political Economy, ISSN 0022-3808, 12/2015, Volume 123, Issue 6, pp. 1456 - 1499

Recent models of reference-dependent preferences indicate that expectations may play a prominent role in the presence of behavioral anomalies. A subset of such...

LOTTERY EQUIVALENTS METHOD | DISAPPOINTMENT AVERSION | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES | ECONOMICS | SUBJECT MISCONCEPTIONS | LOSS AVERSION | PROSPECT-THEORY | ELICITING VALUATIONS | Political risk | Learning models (Stochastic processes) | Analysis | Endowments

LOTTERY EQUIVALENTS METHOD | DISAPPOINTMENT AVERSION | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | REFERENCE-DEPENDENT PREFERENCES | ECONOMICS | SUBJECT MISCONCEPTIONS | LOSS AVERSION | PROSPECT-THEORY | ELICITING VALUATIONS | Political risk | Learning models (Stochastic processes) | Analysis | Endowments

Journal Article

Management Science, ISSN 0025-1909, 3/2015, Volume 61, Issue 3, pp. 637 - 648

We present results from a large-scale international survey on risk preferences conducted in 53 countries. In all countries, we find, on average, an attitude of...

prospect theory | cross-cultural comparison | risk preferences | Prospect theory | Cross-cultural comparison | Risk preferences | AMBIGUITY AVERSION | UTILITY-THEORY | MANAGEMENT | CROSS-CULTURAL DIFFERENCES | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | UNCERTAINTY | LOSS AVERSION | GENDER-DIFFERENCES | PROSPECT-THEORY | Cross-cultural studies | Risk-taking (Psychology) | International aspects | Analysis

prospect theory | cross-cultural comparison | risk preferences | Prospect theory | Cross-cultural comparison | Risk preferences | AMBIGUITY AVERSION | UTILITY-THEORY | MANAGEMENT | CROSS-CULTURAL DIFFERENCES | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | DECISION-MAKING | UNCERTAINTY | LOSS AVERSION | GENDER-DIFFERENCES | PROSPECT-THEORY | Cross-cultural studies | Risk-taking (Psychology) | International aspects | Analysis

Journal Article

Economic Development and Cultural Change, ISSN 0013-0079, 04/2018, Volume 66, Issue 3, pp. 417 - 446

Risk aversion is generally found to decrease in income. Between countries, comparative findings with students suggest that people in poorer countries are more...

AREA STUDIES | ATTITUDES | PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | POVERTY | UNCERTAINTY | AVERSION | ECONOMICS | GENDER-DIFFERENCES | UTILITY | INDIA | PROSPECT-THEORY | Economics | aversion | Nationalekonomi | gender-differences | parameter-free elicitation | attitudes | utility | poverty | prospect-theory | uncertainty | probability weighting function | India

AREA STUDIES | ATTITUDES | PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | POVERTY | UNCERTAINTY | AVERSION | ECONOMICS | GENDER-DIFFERENCES | UTILITY | INDIA | PROSPECT-THEORY | Economics | aversion | Nationalekonomi | gender-differences | parameter-free elicitation | attitudes | utility | poverty | prospect-theory | uncertainty | probability weighting function | India

Journal Article

European Journal of Operational Research, ISSN 0377-2217, 2006, Volume 172, Issue 2, pp. 560 - 573

This paper describes a parametric family of utility functions for decision analysis. The parameterization embeds the HARA class in a four-parameter...

Pearson system of distributions | Prospect theory | Target-based decisions | HARA utility functions | Probability weighting function | Coefficient of risk aversion | Elicitation of preferences under risk | Expected utility | DECISION | CUMULATIVE PROSPECT-THEORY | RISK-AVERSION | coefficient of risk aversion | target-based decisions | probability weighting function | expected utility | prospect theory | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | elicitation of preferences under risk | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY | Analysis | Electric utilities

Pearson system of distributions | Prospect theory | Target-based decisions | HARA utility functions | Probability weighting function | Coefficient of risk aversion | Elicitation of preferences under risk | Expected utility | DECISION | CUMULATIVE PROSPECT-THEORY | RISK-AVERSION | coefficient of risk aversion | target-based decisions | probability weighting function | expected utility | prospect theory | OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | elicitation of preferences under risk | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY | Analysis | Electric utilities

Journal Article

Psychological Review, ISSN 0033-295X, 4/2008, Volume 115, Issue 2, pp. 463 - 501

During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of...

expected utility | paradox | rank-dependent utility | cumulative prospect theory | decision making | BRANCH INDEPENDENCE | CUMULATIVE PROSPECT-THEORY | PSYCHOLOGY | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SURE-THING PRINCIPLE | TRADE-OFFS | STOCHASTIC-DOMINANCE | LOSS AVERSION | Decision Making | Cognitive Processes | Theories | Prediction | Attention | Probability | Risk | Models | Evaluation Methods | Models, Psychological | Psychological Theory | Humans | Risk-Taking | Decision-making | Psychological aspects | Risk aversion | Evaluation

expected utility | paradox | rank-dependent utility | cumulative prospect theory | decision making | BRANCH INDEPENDENCE | CUMULATIVE PROSPECT-THEORY | PSYCHOLOGY | PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SURE-THING PRINCIPLE | TRADE-OFFS | STOCHASTIC-DOMINANCE | LOSS AVERSION | Decision Making | Cognitive Processes | Theories | Prediction | Attention | Probability | Risk | Models | Evaluation Methods | Models, Psychological | Psychological Theory | Humans | Risk-Taking | Decision-making | Psychological aspects | Risk aversion | Evaluation

Journal Article

The Review of Economic Studies, ISSN 0034-6527, 10/2009, Volume 76, Issue 4, pp. 1461 - 1489

Proper scoring rules provide convenient and highly efficient tools for incentive-compatible elicitations of subjective beliefs. As traditionally used, however,...

Additivity | Risk aversion | Economic theory | Expected values | Psychological attitudes | Calibration | Expected utility | Frequentism | Probabilities | Ambiguity | EXPECTED UTILITY | PERSONAL PROBABILITIES | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY | DECISION-MAKING | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY AVERSION | AMBIGUITY | ECONOMICS | PROSPECT-THEORY

Additivity | Risk aversion | Economic theory | Expected values | Psychological attitudes | Calibration | Expected utility | Frequentism | Probabilities | Ambiguity | EXPECTED UTILITY | PERSONAL PROBABILITIES | PROBABILITY WEIGHTING FUNCTION | PARAMETER-FREE ELICITATION | SUBJECTIVE-PROBABILITY | DECISION-MAKING | PREFERENCES | UNCERTAINTY AVERSION | AMBIGUITY | ECONOMICS | PROSPECT-THEORY

Journal Article