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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, 09/2016, Volume 63, pp. 19 - 32
Journal Article
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ISSN 0733-9364, 11/2016, Volume 142, Issue 11, p. 5016012
Journal Article
Transport Problems, ISSN 1896-0596, 2016, Volume 11, Issue 2, pp. 103 - 115
.... The consequence is either unintentional overoptimistic forecasting of perceived results or calculated interpretation of facts in favour of personal and political interests... 
Planning fallacies | Optimism bias | Cost forecasting | Reference class forecasting | Transportation projects | transportation projects | optimism bias | reference class forecasting | planning fallacies | cost forecasting
Journal Article
Journal of Management in Engineering, ISSN 0742-597X, 05/2016, Volume 32, Issue 3, p. 5016002
.... This paper focuses on analyzing cost overruns in Turkey and comparing the cost estimates produced using the traditional estimating method against cost forecasts produced using the reference class forecasting (RCF) method... 
Case Studies | Case Study | IR-100702 | METIS-312890 | Contract sum | Optimism bias | Cost forecasts | Project final cost | Reference class forecasting | Contractors | Forecasts and trends | Case studies | Practice
Journal Article
2013, ISBN 9780199330850, 192
most eminent scholars of global historical trends, this ambitious book asks the biggest of questions: are we on the cusp of a radical world historical shift or... 
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General | Middle class | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Economic Conditions | Technological innovations | POLITICAL SCIENCE / General | Forecasting | Capitalism
Book
Energy policy, ISSN 0301-4215, 2014, Volume 69, pp. 43 - 56
.... We investigate this question with the “outside view” or “reference class forecasting” based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology... 
Large hydropower dams | Outside view | Reference class forecasting | Cost–benefit forecasting | Schedule and cost estimates | Cost-benefit forecasting | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES | ENERGY & FUELS | FORECASTS | PUBLIC-WORKS PROJECTS | ECONOMICS | ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES | DELUSIONS | Energy policy | Dams | Design and construction | Analysis | Finance | Quantitative Finance - General Finance
Journal Article
Transport, ISSN 1648-4142, 04/2017, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp. 180 - 191
This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting... 
UNITE-DSS model | scenario analysis | cost-benefit analysis | optimism bias | reference class forecasting | decision support systems | risk analysis | TRAFFIC FORECASTS | COST OVERRUNS | ACCURACY | DEMAND | PLANNERS | TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY | CBA-DK MODEL | INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS | INVESTMENTS
Journal Article
European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 2015, Volume 15, Issue 3, pp. 362 - 375
.... Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost-benefit analysis... 
Expert judgments | Optimism bias | Transport infrastructure investments | Overconfidence theory | Reference class forecasting | Risk assessment
Journal Article
Energy research & social science, ISSN 2214-6296, 2014, Volume 3, Issue C, pp. 152 - 160
Earlier this year, we assessed the construction costs affiliated with 401 electricity infrastructure projects worldwide. We found that these projects... 
Overrun | Reference class forecasting | Power plant permitting | Construction costs
Journal Article
Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice, ISSN 0965-8564, 2018, Volume 118, pp. 174 - 190
Journal Article
Judgment and Decision Making, ISSN 1930-2975, 07/2018, Volume 13, Issue 4, pp. 334 - 344
Journal Article
Energy (Oxford), ISSN 0360-5442, 2014, Volume 74, Issue C, pp. 906 - 917
Journal Article
2016, ISBN 1137589922, xiv, 181
"During the 1990s Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history. The 2000s showed how it is an illusion to imagine a peaceful world without conflict. In this... 
Economics | Theory | Economic forecasting | Economic Conditions | General | Since 1990 | International economic relations | Economic history | International finance | Forecasting | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS | Management science
Book
Financial accountability & management, ISSN 1468-0408, 2019, Volume 35, Issue 4, pp. 337 - 352
Governments worldwide are introducing “reference class forecasting” to improve the accuracy of megaproject cost estimation and thus ultimately the ability... 
public budgeting | project cost estimation | megaproject | reference class forecasting | actor–network theory | Public finance
Journal Article
Project Management Journal, ISSN 8756-9728, 10/2016, Volume 47, Issue 5, pp. 36 - 51
.... In contrast, reference class forecasting (RCF) bypasses human judgment by basing forecasts on the actual outcomes of past projects similar to the project being forecasted... 
earned value management | project forecasting | project management | reference class forecasting | empirical database | Monte Carlo simulation | MANAGEMENT | PUBLIC-WORKS PROJECTS | Monte Carlo method | Usage | Analysis | Project management | Business forecasting | Forecasts and trends | Industrial project management
Journal Article